Changes to FSM eligibility will make tracking progress of disadvantage pupils ‘almost impossible’

A new report by NFER warns that recent and anticipated changes to free school meal (FSM) eligibility will make it ‘almost impossible’ to track the attainment of disadvantaged pupils relative to their non-disadvantaged peers over the next decade.

The research shows how the transitional arrangements introduced by the Government to smooth the roll out of Universal Credit are significantly increasing the number of FSM eligible pupils. The Covid-19 pandemic has amplified this trend.

While these newly eligible FSM pupils are largely drawn from the most disadvantaged areas, this will still change the composition of the disadvantage group. This is because, on average, even though these newly FSM eligible pupils have significantly lower attainment compared to their non-disadvantaged peers, they have slightly higher attainment relative to those who are already eligible. This is likely to pull the average attainment for the whole disadvantage group upwards making it almost impossible to tell whether apparent changes to the attainment gap are being driven by changes to the composition of the disadvantage group, economic conditions or genuine attainment changes.  

Senior economist Jenna Julius explains:

“While changes in the attainment gap are already subject to potential misinterpretation, it is going to become increasingly difficult to understand how the attainment of disadvantaged pupils is evolving over time.

“If we want to monitor changes in attainment between young people from different backgrounds in future and develop policies to address these, policymakers should urgently explore the development of a basket of measures to better understand and interpret the evolution of attainment among disadvantaged pupils in the coming years.”

The report also found:

• The Covid-19 pandemic precipitated a sharp increase in the number of families in poverty, with the number of FSM eligible pupils increasing by almost 300,000 between January 2020 and 2021.
• The pupils who became newly FSM eligible during the pandemic were disproportionately from more disadvantaged areas, and from schools which were most disadvantaged before the pandemic.
• These pupils were also more likely to be from an ethnic minority group and have English as an additional language compared to both pupils who were already eligible for FSM, and pupils who were not eligible for FSM in either January 2020 or January 2021.
• There is a case for targeting more support towards the most persistently disadvantaged pupils. However, due to Universal Credit transitional arrangements, it will no longer be possible to identify how persistently disadvantaged pupils are based on their underlying family circumstances.
• The Pupil Premium grant has not been successful at ensuring that funding for disadvantaged pupils is protected over time. If the PP grant had kept in-line with inflation since 2014/15, then primary and secondary schools would be receiving £160 and £127 more per PP pupil today, compared to what they actually receive^[i].

The report recommends:

• The Government urgently explores the development of a new set of measures to better understand and interpret the evolution of attainment among disadvantaged pupils and their peers.
• The Government commits to increasing the pupil premium in line with school-level inflation over the next five years, as part of a longer-term commitment to build back better and support social mobility as we emerge from the pandemic.
• The Government commits to producing an annual statement reviewing how funding is being targeted towards disadvantaged pupils, through the pupil premium grant, funding for deprivation provided through the National Funding Formula and other funding sources.

Sector Response

Commenting on the report from the NFER warning that recent and planned changes to free school meals eligibility will make tracking the progress of disadvantaged students ‘almost impossible’, Geoff Barton, General Secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said:

“While this report is seemingly about arcane data processes, there is a really important issue here. We have to be able to track the progress of disadvantaged youngsters so that we are able to put in place the right support.

“Through the law of unintended consequences, the changes in free school meal eligibility will skew the figures so that we won’t be able to tell if the attainment gap between these pupils and other children is improving or not. Added to this is the stark impact of the pandemic in increasing the number of families in poverty.

“Being able to track the progress of disadvantaged youngsters is a key element in boosting social justice, and the government’s oft-repeated phrase ‘levelling up’. Therefore, there really does need to be a fresh look at how we keep track of disadvantage in the education system, backed with sufficient support through the pupil premium.

“The government must recognise the flaws that the NFER has identified and undertake an urgent review of free school meals eligibility and the pupil premium grant to ensure disadvantage among children and young people is correctly identified and there is sufficient funding to meet the needs of this rapidly-expanding group.”

Commenting on a new report by the National Foundation For Educational Research (NFER) warning that changes to free school meals (FSM) eligibility will make tracking progress of disadvantaged pupils ‘almost impossible’, Paul Whiteman, general secretary of school leaders’ union NAHT, said:

“It is both clear and deeply concerning that Covid-19 has led to a sharp increase in the number of families living in poverty. As this report shows, many of the children and young people who have become eligible during recent years are disproportionately drawn from more disadvantaged areas and are those who already needed additional support from schools. It’s quite right that these pupils attract additional funding so that schools have the resources they need to meet their needs, even though this will make comparison – and therefore tracking progress – harder.

“The erosion in the value of pupil premium funding for disadvantaged pupils highlighted in this report is another major concern. Despite recent announcements, it is clear that this funding will be less in real terms than it was in 2015 on a per pupil basis. This, coupled with the government’s decision to divert funding away from schools serving more disadvantaged communities, raises serious questions about its commitment to levelling-up and providing support for the pupils and families that need it the most.”

Commenting on Investigating the changing landscape of pupil disadvantage, a report by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER), Dr Mary Bousted, Joint General Secretary of the National Education Union, said:

“We know the impact that coronavirus has had on families living on the brink. The NFER report shows that Covid-19 has precipitated a sharp increase in the number of families in poverty, with the number of free-school-meals-eligible pupils increasing by almost 300,000 between January 2020 and 2021.

“Thousands more pupils from families on low incomes are slipping through the cracks and are not receiving the financial support to which they are entitled. A staggering one million children in poverty across the UK remain ineligible for free school meals, according to Child Poverty Action Group. No child should come to school too hungry to learn.

“We are concerned that the help that is now offered to families has been cut down to completely inadequate levels and more and more families are being pushed into poverty. The effects of poverty in childhood can last a lifetime and impact on education in multiple ways.

“The Government must act urgently to create the conditions in which all children can thrive and learn and ensure that no child is held back as a result of poverty.”

Stephen Morgan MP, Labour’s Shadow Schools Minister, commenting on a National Foundation for Educational Research report that reveals changes to Universal Credit could make it harder to track the progress of poorer pupils, said:

“Ministers are just rearranging the deckchairs, making it more difficult to identify disadvantage and preventing meaningful improvements to the lives of those children who need it most.

“Labour’s Children’s Recovery Plan would help all young people to thrive and tackle the widening attainment gap in the wake of the pandemic.

“The Conservatives must match this ambition for children’s futures.”