Whither 2024!

Projections for number of young people who are likely to be economically inactive or not in education or training to be so by the middle of next year are around one in eight, so it’s been a very focusing first 4 months as the CEO of FAB.  The diversity of the qualifications and awarding sector has been striking, as has the industry’s commitment to improving learner outcomes, working collaboratively with governments and regulators, and to supporting the industry.

Growing Certainty in the Ministerial Vision for FE and Skills in England

Whilst not without opportunity, uncertainty continues to cast a long shadow.  Happily, one senses that there is growing certainty in the Ministerial vision for FE and Skills in England as the Westminster government settles into its groove.  The Post-16 strategy, due around now, will be a useful addition to on-going policy work and should help to cement the overall strategy with appropriate detail. 

Some associated detail has begun to emerge over the past few months.  The connection between skills and growth has been prominent in the thinking around the Industrial strategy.  There is a clear tilt towards young people and FAB was pleased to see that adaptations to EPA are now receiving further consideration.

The connection between Skills and Growth has been prominent in the thinking around the Industrial Strategy

We have also had recent announcements around the DfE Qualifications Review.  Whilst the latter does not eliminate the uncertainty in this arena, as submission arrangements await confirmation, they do represent a pragmatic, refined and measured approach which augurs well for the policy changes to come for England if replicated. 

We Need to Be Better at Reform; Revolutionary Reform is Risky; and Rapid Roll-Out is Risky

Finding headroom for a Skills and Growth Levy is clearly challenging and the indications that there will be no DfE Funding for Level 7 apprenticeships has been communicated very plainly.  Getting the implementation of this change right will be crucial if Level 7 apprenticeships are to continue.  Likewise, considering how future policy change is most appropriately implemented in an industry that will be looking to manage the increase in National Insurance charges whilst recovering from high interest rates and the impact of Covid.  Ofqual’s recently released research into learning outcome-based qualification reform (CASLO) is instructive: we need to be better at reform; revolutionary reform is risky; and rapid roll-out is risky.

Wales

And it can be easy to overlook that there are substantive skills-related change programmes in implementation and consideration in all 4 jurisdictions across the UK, and well advanced in Wales.  Qualifications Wales has delivered further sector reviews and Medr came into being on 1 August, with responsibility for funding and regulating the tertiary education and research sector across Wales.  How these reforms settle and are melded to form an integrated system during 2025 will be seminal to the future success of vocational and technical education in Wales.

It will be interesting to see the impact that Skills England is able to have on the coherence of FE and Skills based education across the 4 home-nations.  Transferability of qualification will be an important contributor to labour market and geographic-flexibility, and thus growth. 

As Skills England comes into being and finds its feet in 2025, it will also be interesting to see whether it does possess the ‘firepower’ to both corral and influence demand requirements.  The first Skills England update report was silent on how IfATE’s operational responsibilities are to be discharged going forward.  Hopefully, DfE will not become gummed-up in operational detail as a result, and it would be to no-ones benefit if there is a period of approval and review stasis in England as Skills England emerges, albeit the commitment to include more stakeholders in decision making is welcome; this needs to include the Qualifications and Assessment industry.

From a FAB perspective, we will also be keen to understand what arrangements are being made to balance Skills England determined demand with supply.  It was encouraging to see the first update report acknowledge the importance of learner and apprentice supply – qualifications supply will also be a key determinant of success for all 4-home nation reform programmes, as we are discovering in the apprenticeship and T Level programmes.

Regulated and Unregulated Qualifications in 2025

In work on Skills England and the Curriculum and Assessment Review, it will also be important to consider those qualifications that are regulated as well as those that sit outside Ofqual’s regulatory regime.  The latter is an important part of the market, offering employers a greater degree of control; over 80% of those polled at the FAB conference in November indicated that they were likely to increase their presence in this part of the market in the coming year. 

FAB members are also keen that the Curiculum and Assessment Review smooths the learner journey into vocational and technical qualifications at 16 by increasing the exposure to the vocational and technical offer in England pre-16 – so going beyond the Baker Clause.  It would also help everyone if the arrangements for English and Maths were settled and confirmed in the coming year. We anticipate the preliminary Curriculum and Assessment review findings to be released in February 2025.

International Market in 2025

In the context of new markets, over 60% of those polled at the FAB Conference this year indicated their ambition to expand into the international market in 2025.  There is growing success in this area for UK qualifications and awarding businesses, who report considerable demand for UK qualifications because of their quality, relevance and the integrity, to which independence of assessment and effective regulation contributes much.

Early 2025 will see the conclusion of Ofqual’s consultation on the addition of principles to their regulatory framework.  It is anticipated that this will be a subject of more discussion in the first part of the year.  FAB members were please to see the dissolution of the DfE’s EPAO Register and will be interested to see where it proves possible to reduce the bureaucratic burden further.

So, it’s going to be an equally focusing and absorbing start to 2025, with plenty of opportunity for betterment and progress if we are all sufficiently bold to seize it.  The FAB conference was cautiously optimistic that we might.

By Rob Nitsch, Chief Executive of the Federation of Awarding Bodies (FAB)