Five Insights to Support the New Government’s Skills Agenda

Emily Tanner, Programme Head, Post-14 Education and Skills, discusses the UK government’s plans to reform post-16 education to better align skills with local needs and improve youth employment prospects. Research suggests focusing on essential employment skills, increasing access to higher technical qualifications, providing tailored career guidance, rethinking GCSE resits for lower attainers, and addressing youth disengagement. These reforms aim to boost economic growth and social cohesion.

In an open letter to the education workforce, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson committed to “bring forward a comprehensive strategy for post-16 education … and create higher-quality training and employment paths by empowering local communities to develop the skills people need”, offering a new direction for young people transitioning from education to employment.

The creation of Skills England and Technical Excellence Colleges suggests a stronger move towards shaping skills provision to match local need while the Youth Guarantee and Growth and Skills Levy could enable young people to progress further in education and training.  And the promise of more integration between Further and Higher Education has the potential to provide more flexible learning opportunities and second chances. The question now is how should the policies be designed and implemented to ensure success?

Evidence is Available to Guide new Thinking

Research supported by the Nuffield Foundation in recent years provides rigorous evidence that can help shape the new skills plans. The research, highlighted below, includes large-scale programmes forecasting how the labour market will change in response to major social and economic factors, a deeper understanding of skills needs and supply, and new approaches to measuring skills and tracking young people’s pathways.

Five important insights emerge from this research about what’s needed to support positive transitions to employment.

1. Essential employment skills increase the likelihood of successful outcomes and should be at the heart of skills planning, curriculum, employer engagement, and career guidance.

Labour market projections from the National Foundation for Educational Research’s Skills Imperative 2035 programme indicate which sectors will grow and decline due to demographic, technological and social change, with data available at local level to inform skills planning. However, while the focus of Local Skills Improvement Plans tends to be on the technical skills and qualifications needed for growth sectors, there is growing evidence that essential employment skills are equally important for good employment.

The six skills identified as most essential by 2035 are:

1. Collaboration,
2. Communication,
3. Creative Thinking,
4. Information Literacy,
5. Organising, Planning and Prioritising,
6. Problem-Solving and Decision Making.

New approaches have been developed to define, measure and teach essential employment skills establishing them as tangible learning aims. Given the high value placed on these skills by employers and new evidence linking these skills to earnings, job and life satisfaction, it will be important to consider how Skills England can ensure they have greater focus in skills planning and provision.

2. Increased access to Higher Technical Qualifications is needed to improve productivity and opportunities for individuals.

The Resolution Foundation’s proposed economic strategy for Britain ‘Ending Stagnation’ identified that the growth sectors of the economy, critical for future prosperity, require a more advanced skill-set. While participation in degree-level study has increased over recent years, the UK faces significant skills gaps, particularly at Levels 4 and 5. There is a need to double the current 11% of workers qualified to this level which will involve engaging more young people in education and training beyond the age of 18. The UK compares poorly to equivalent nations in this regard, with 69% of young people in education at 18, compared to 79% in France and 81% in Germany. Policymakers need to find a way to encourage greater supply and uptake of Higher Technical Qualifications without undermining the progress made in widening participation at university. While evidence is still gathering on T Levels, research shows that Level 3 BTECs are instrumental in providing a stepping-stone to further study, particularly for those from disadvantaged backgrounds. The proposed Technical Excellence Colleges could provide a renewed focus on progression opportunities, as well as adult learning. A strategy to reverse the decline in employer-based training will also be important for addressing skills gaps.

3. Young people need more evidence-based and tailored support to help them choose optimal pathways, backed up by removing financial and other barriers.

Although career guidance support in England has improved markedly with the implementation of the Gatsby Benchmarks, evidence on pathways and outcomes suggests there is still a need for more tailored guidance and the removal of structural barriers. Across the UK, students from disadvantaged backgrounds are less likely to achieve qualifications and be in professional, well-paid employment, with inequalities particularly stark in Wales. While UK higher education participation has increased, students from low socio-economic backgrounds are systematically more likely to ‘undermatch’ at university, attending courses that are less academically selective and with lower average earnings than their more advantaged peers, even with the same prior academic attainment. The pattern is largely explained by the secondary school attended and the greater likelihood of attending a university close to home, a choice partly driven by spiraling accommodation and travel costs. Women undermatch on earnings, mainly by choosing courses that lead to less well-paid jobs.

The emergence of personalised digital tools that draw on data about outcomes from learning pathways for students from different backgrounds could substantially improve evidence-based decision-making, alongside support from careers advisers. However, the plethora of tools and lack of transparency about the underlying algorithms points to a need for greater coordination and quality control.

4. Lower attainers would benefit from more employer engagement in post-16 learning and a different approach to GCSE resits.

Students who don’t achieve a standard pass in GCSE English and maths face greater challenges in post-16 learning, with constrained choice of qualification and the need to resit. Recent analysis finds that the post-16 reforms of the past decade have done little to improve education and employment outcomes for lower attainers. It suggests that these students would benefit from more work-based training where they can develop essential employment skills and smooth the transition to good quality employment.

The low pass rate for GCSE resits points to the need for a rethink. Building on previous research, the maths charity, Mathematics Education Innovation, has developed a new post-16 maths GCSE which focuses on the numeracy, quantitative and mathematical skills needed for work and life with a scaffolded approach to assessment. This ‘aGCSE’, supported by the college sector, would equip more students with necessary skills and enable them to progress to other qualifications.

5. High rates of economic inactivity among young adults highlight a need to understand and pre-empt disengagement among students at school and college.

Improvements in education provision will be limited in their effectiveness unless the rising disengagement of young people from education and employment, exacerbated by the pandemic, is reversed. Young adults have the highest levels of economic inactivity, while one-fifth of school pupils are persistently absent, missing school one day per fortnight. Voices within the education sector are calling for a ‘whole system change’ that places greater emphasis on belonging, mental health, inclusion and relationships. The Government’s proposed work-based training for 18-21 year olds, commitment to increased mental health support in schools and 1,000 new careers advisers are needed urgently. As initiatives are designed and implemented, there is an opportunity for more integrated support across services for young people to match the complexity of people’s lives.

How Could new Policies be Funded?

Implementing a new skills strategy in the context of fiscal constraints and the reductions in education spending seen over the past decade will require trade-offs and prioritisation. Analyses by the Institute for Fiscal Studies and London Economics are useful in setting out options for funding and outlining the implications of different approaches for the Exchequer and the individual. And given what we know about the scarring effects of unemployment in early adulthood, we should see skills development as an investment both in economic growth and social cohesion, rather than as a cost.

Why it Matters?

The need to better support young people’s post-16 journeys will vie for attention with other education priorities, but the research outlined above can support the effective use of limited resources to help ensure more young people are well-equipped for life and work.

In an open letter to the education workforce, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson committed to “bring forward a comprehensive strategy for post-16 education … and create higher-quality training and employment paths by empowering local communities to develop the skills people need”, offering a new direction for young people transitioning from education to employment.

The creation of Skills England and Technical Excellence Colleges suggests a stronger move towards shaping skills provision to match local need while the Youth Guarantee and Growth and Skills Levy could enable young people to progress further in education and training.  And the promise of more integration between Further and Higher Education has the potential to provide more flexible learning opportunities and second chances. The question now is how should the policies be designed and implemented to ensure success?

Evidence is Available to Guide new Thinking

Research supported by the Nuffield Foundation in recent years provides rigorous evidence that can help shape the new skills plans. The research, highlighted below, includes large-scale programmes forecasting how the labour market will change in response to major social and economic factors, a deeper understanding of skills needs and supply, and new approaches to measuring skills and tracking young people’s pathways.

Five important insights emerge from this research about what’s needed to support positive transitions to employment.

1. Essential employment skills increase the likelihood of successful outcomes and should be at the heart of skills planning, curriculum, employer engagement, and career guidance.

Labour market projections from the National Foundation for Educational Research’s Skills Imperative 2035 programme indicate which sectors will grow and decline due to demographic, technological and social change, with data available at local level to inform skills planning. However, while the focus of Local Skills Improvement Plans tends to be on the technical skills and qualifications needed for growth sectors, there is growing evidence that essential employment skills are equally important for good employment.

The six skills identified as most essential by 2035 are:

1. Collaboration,
2. Communication,
3. Creative Thinking,
4. Information Literacy,
5. Organising, Planning and Prioritising,
6. Problem-Solving and Decision Making.

New approaches have been developed to define, measure and teach essential employment skills establishing them as tangible learning aims. Given the high value placed on these skills by employers and new evidence linking these skills to earnings, job and life satisfaction, it will be important to consider how Skills England can ensure they have greater focus in skills planning and provision.

2. Increased access to Higher Technical Qualifications is needed to improve productivity and opportunities for individuals.

The Resolution Foundation’s proposed economic strategy for Britain ‘Ending Stagnation’ identified that the growth sectors of the economy, critical for future prosperity, require a more advanced skill-set. While participation in degree-level study has increased over recent years, the UK faces significant skills gaps, particularly at Levels 4 and 5. There is a need to double the current 11% of workers qualified to this level which will involve engaging more young people in education and training beyond the age of 18. The UK compares poorly to equivalent nations in this regard, with 69% of young people in education at 18, compared to 79% in France and 81% in Germany. Policymakers need to find a way to encourage greater supply and uptake of Higher Technical Qualifications without undermining the progress made in widening participation at university. While evidence is still gathering on T Levels, research shows that Level 3 BTECs are instrumental in providing a stepping-stone to further study, particularly for those from disadvantaged backgrounds. The proposed Technical Excellence Colleges could provide a renewed focus on progression opportunities, as well as adult learning. A strategy to reverse the decline in employer-based training will also be important for addressing skills gaps.

3. Young people need more evidence-based and tailored support to help them choose optimal pathways, backed up by removing financial and other barriers.

Although career guidance support in England has improved markedly with the implementation of the Gatsby Benchmarks, evidence on pathways and outcomes suggests there is still a need for more tailored guidance and the removal of structural barriers. Across the UK, students from disadvantaged backgrounds are less likely to achieve qualifications and be in professional, well-paid employment, with inequalities particularly stark in Wales. While UK higher education participation has increased, students from low socio-economic backgrounds are systematically more likely to ‘undermatch’ at university, attending courses that are less academically selective and with lower average earnings than their more advantaged peers, even with the same prior academic attainment. The pattern is largely explained by the secondary school attended and the greater likelihood of attending a university close to home, a choice partly driven by spiraling accommodation and travel costs. Women undermatch on earnings, mainly by choosing courses that lead to less well-paid jobs.

The emergence of personalised digital tools that draw on data about outcomes from learning pathways for students from different backgrounds could substantially improve evidence-based decision-making, alongside support from careers advisers. However, the plethora of tools and lack of transparency about the underlying algorithms points to a need for greater coordination and quality control.

4. Lower attainers would benefit from more employer engagement in post-16 learning and a different approach to GCSE resits.

Students who don’t achieve a standard pass in GCSE English and maths face greater challenges in post-16 learning, with constrained choice of qualification and the need to resit. Recent analysis finds that the post-16 reforms of the past decade have done little to improve education and employment outcomes for lower attainers. It suggests that these students would benefit from more work-based training where they can develop essential employment skills and smooth the transition to good quality employment.

The low pass rate for GCSE resits points to the need for a rethink. Building on previous research, the maths charity, Mathematics Education Innovation, has developed a new post-16 maths GCSE which focuses on the numeracy, quantitative and mathematical skills needed for work and life with a scaffolded approach to assessment. This ‘aGCSE’, supported by the college sector, would equip more students with necessary skills and enable them to progress to other qualifications.

5. High rates of economic inactivity among young adults highlight a need to understand and pre-empt disengagement among students at school and college.

Improvements in education provision will be limited in their effectiveness unless the rising disengagement of young people from education and employment, exacerbated by the pandemic, is reversed. Young adults have the highest levels of economic inactivity, while one-fifth of school pupils are persistently absent, missing school one day per fortnight. Voices within the education sector are calling for a ‘whole system change’ that places greater emphasis on belonging, mental health, inclusion and relationships. The Government’s proposed work-based training for 18-21 year olds, commitment to increased mental health support in schools and 1,000 new careers advisers are needed urgently. As initiatives are designed and implemented, there is an opportunity for more integrated support across services for young people to match the complexity of people’s lives.

How Could new Policies be Funded?

Implementing a new skills strategy in the context of fiscal constraints and the reductions in education spending seen over the past decade will require trade-offs and prioritisation. Analyses by the Institute for Fiscal Studies and London Economics are useful in setting out options for funding and outlining the implications of different approaches for the Exchequer and the individual. And given what we know about the scarring effects of unemployment in early adulthood, we should see skills development as an investment both in economic growth and social cohesion, rather than as a cost.

Why it Matters?

The need to better support young people’s post-16 journeys will vie for attention with other education priorities, but the research outlined above can support the effective use of limited resources to help ensure more young people are well-equipped for life and work.

By Emily Tanner, Programme Head, Post-14 Education and Skills, at the Nuffield Foundation